As President Donald Trump’s regime-change rhetoric and the U.S. military buildup sharpen focus on Iran’s neighbourhood, analysts are increasingly watching “neutral” Central Asian states—especially Turkmenistan—as potential under‑the‑radar variables in any escalation scenario. Recent OSINT-driven reporting has pointed to U.S. military transport aircraft appearing in Turkmenistan (with exact locations not independently confirmed), raising questions about whether Ashgabat’s neutrality could still accommodate limited logistics or special-operations enabling. Turkmenistan’s positioning matters because it borders Iran and has kept ties with Israel, including Israel opening a permanent embassy in Ashgabat in 2023 that Israeli officials highlighted as being about 17 km from Iran’s border—while Turkmenistan’s “permanent neutrality” is formally recognised by a UN General Assembly resolution adopted on 12 December 1995.