Despite killing Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, Donald Trump appears no closer to toppling Iran’s regime, which has rapidly regrouped under Mojtaba Khamenei. With ground invasion off the table, Washington is weighing arming Kurdish militias—an explosive move that risks a direct clash with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. For Turkey, long at war with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, this crosses a red line. A destabilised Iran could also unleash refugees and embolden the Kurdish insurgency, raising fears that the next phase of war could fracture NATO itself.