India’s crude trade dynamics are shifting sharply. Merchandise imports from Russia fell 40.48% year-on-year in January 2026 to $2.86 billion, largely due to a steep reduction in Russian crude purchases by Indian refiners. Petroleum crude typically makes up nearly 80% of India’s imports from Russia, with January crude imports estimated at around $2.3 billion. The decline began after imports peaked in April and followed escalating trade tensions, including additional U.S. tariff measures under President Donald Trump. While Washington later withdrew the punitive tariff, Indian refiners have indicated a pullback from Russian oil, potentially shifting toward alternative suppliers such as Venezuela.